Woah. First XL and Lehman Brothers, and now HBOS/Halifax. Lehman survived the great depression and the second world war, but got nuked by the great 21st century recession. Lloyds have now got themselves out of the shit by merging with HBOS. Earlier in the year, Halifax mailed all its employees to tell them what a “strong” financial position it was in amidst all the turmoil. Just watch now - they have twice the number of employees they need, so a third of them will be getting the chop. Enjoy the carnage. I know i will.

Update:
Looks like i was right, as the news only broke this morning.

“Thousands of jobs will be slashed and branches closed as a result of the £12bn emergency rescue of Britain’s biggest mortgage lender (Halifax) by Lloyds TSB, it was revealed today.”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1057379

I was one of a number of people who predicted over a year ago that we were on the edge of a very serious disaster when i had heard all the talk in the city of “battening down the hatches”. The bankers knew it was coming a long time ago and all the wealthy in this country who could pay for the advice moved their assets and investments overseas a long time ago.

Memorise this scripture:

“And God caused them to prosper in the desert.”

Even in the desert when everything was going the opposite way for everyone else.

If you didn’t listen to me back then, you had better listen to me now. Sit down and shut the fuck up.

The scary thing is that more and more people are talking of a “depression” than a recession. This is going to be so much more serious than expected, and it doesn’t take a genius to work out why. This may have a cutesy name to make it more palatable for you (the Disney-like “Credit Crunch”), but its a recession. And recession always last a lot longer than we expect them to.

The Western countries bankrupt themselves with 2 Middle Eastern wars, subsequently driving up the price of oil after tightening its supply (with Russia tightening up the supply of gas). China buys up the US and takes over manufacturing. Fractional reserve banks lend out vast amounts of imaginary invisible money (credit) to absolutely anyone and everyone out of sheer greed – many times more than they can lend by law (8x). Governments encourage lending to make their record shine for “prosperity”.

Meanwhile, consumers buy lots of shit they don’t need on credit cards and loans (free money!), but their salaries stay the same. Mortgages are easy to get, so everyone buys and lets out. The economy is based on invisible money nobody has, and can’t pay back. Spending credit drives retail forward, before it contracts again. Eventually the price of living gets too high, and there is no money to pay the loans back. The gap between debt and salary is too much. The housing market isn’t collapsing because of the value of houses (as they always go up), but the ability to repay. Banks will call in all their loans to pay back their own. For money they didn’t have to lend in the first place.

Having more money around in your pocket on the weekend gives you the illusion that you are prospering, even if it is a credit card. Being able to buy more things for your house is an illusion that makes you feel like you’re doing well. Other people around you who have lots more plasma TVs, computers, cars, sofas and clothes is an illusion that makes you think we are all prospering. It allows retailers to make a lot of sales when they wouldn’t normally be able to.

What do you get when you fuel economic growth by encouraging people to borrow from lenders? A collapse when nobody can pay it back. It’s inevitable. The only variable is how long the cycle lasts.

Credit that is tied to fixed assets will always survive as it is exchanged for physical wealth, so mortgages are a safe bet because banks can acquire property by default if you can’t make payments on your house. The Bank of England underwrites all national banks. That’s why we have so many interest-only mortgages – the bank owns your house. That’s right, you are a tenant, and they are the landlord. You pay their usury charge for 20 years and end up with absolutely nothing.

Sell your house now on the downturn and you are a mug because you’ll lose money. Wait and you are a mug, because you bought way too high (ever ask yourself why some land, some bricks and a roof is worth half a million?). You buy low and you sell at the highest point. Supply and demand. Simple rules. If you want a cheap house, wait a year until the market is flooded and the price is at its lowest because all the mugs are trying to panic-sell.

Economic conditions come in cycles, and it’s important to properly understand that. This depression is a cycle we are entering into that must complete. What goes up must come down as it tries to reach an equilibrium. World events push things off balance, but economies are always trying to reach a middle balancing point. The only thing that matters is the length of time of the cycle – the reaction and counter-reaction, and that is determined by world events. Economies are generally slaves rather than masters.

Lending drives up the bell curve of spending, so when the opposite of growth happens (i.e. contraction, or recession), it is the extremes of the economy that survive as the indulgent middle suffers. Rich affluent goods will always flourish as the buyers are wealthy enough to afford them in any circumstances. At the other end are the necessities for survival – utilities like electricity/gas/fuel, and commodities like food and water. Did you ever ask yourself why we have to pay for water when 92% of our planet is covered by it?

So what’s going to happen? The banks won’t be so flexible on overdrafts, and lenders won’t lend you anything after they call in as many of their loans as they can. The government will loosen up bankruptcy laws, and the current cabinet will take the blame for the problems and be driven out (it was a poisoned chalice that Gorgon Brown couldn’t resist). People will cut back on their spending and try to sell the things they have bought. Homes will get repossessed, pensions will be reclaimed and companies will make lots of people redundant because they weren’t really needed as staff in the first place.

The rich will make a lot of money from the contraction, as they always do. Drinking and gambling will increase as people try to escape, and violence will increase as frustration grows. Newspapers will capitalise on fear to sell more papers with nasty headlines. Broadcasters will pump out feelgood tabloid crap to entertain the masses away from how fucked everything is. People will move out of expensive cities to cheaper rural areas and reconsider their careers. Councils will reach for more money in taxes and fines.

Am i the only person who thinks this recession is a good thing?

Seriously, who gives a flying fuck if a bunch of greedy pretentious investment bankers and malingering lawyers lose their jobs? Granted, there will be good people mixed in the cull, but these are the same people who boast about their income at poncy wine bars and determine their whole existence on material crap. Fuck ‘em. None of them give a fuck about you. The financial industry and the usurers who make them up never cared about you and they live in a pathetic little world that is coming crashing down because of their own greed.

Because of this, a generation will learn the consequences of warmongering. If you ravage your economy to pay for thousands of soldiers to invade other people’s countries, you pay the price at home. Maybe if the city flashers have to move back to scale back it will force a lot of them to reconsider what really matters in this life. Maybe if you lose your job, you might be forced to actually do what you’ve always wanted to. Maybe this is a massive blessing and wake-up call in disguise. Maybe it’s time to think about what really matters.

Pointless consumers goods don’t fucking matter – they are sterile bullshit you are subconsciously forced to buy because you mistakenly think it will make you happy. Gadgets, clothes, accessories, flashy status symbols and so on are all just fake, man-made crap that doesn’t fulfil you or make you anything other than yet another gullible fool that has no idea who they are or why they are here. Sd now all that consumer shit is leaving, and the greed city fools are being humbled. Halleluiah.

Tomorrow i will attempt to tell the TV commissioning community something that i believe it has completely missed, and will always continue to miss. Yes, we want to be entertained and be given “uplifting” TV that doesn’t just plunder doom and gloom. But there is a much greater need in the human condition that is witnessed in times of great hardship – we search for meaning and purpose.

What got us through the Blitz was a sense of shared purpose and community. During Vietnam we wrote chants asking what war was for. After 9/11, we wanted to know why they did it. When we connect with other human beings and have relationships, we want to know who they are. We are spiritual creatures living a physical existence, and we are always needing meaning. We need to know why, because understanding comforts us. TV should help us discover meaning, as well as distracting us. It is the experience of people that brings us joy, and helping others is what fulfils us.

This depression may be your redemption. It may be an opportunity. It could be closing a door just to open a new one. It may force your hand, but maybe that was the only way you would do what you had to do. Watch and listen to who is being brought crashing down and ask yourself if you really should pity them. Ask yourself whether you should pity yourself when you knew it was coming and you don’t have to be a victim or something was always inevitable. A lifetime of happiness comes from helping others.

To change the world, you only have to change a small group of the right people. And tomorrow, i start.

“Fairness, justice, and freedom are more than words, they are perspectives. Because while the truncheon may be used in lieu of conversation, words will always retain their power. Words offer the means to meaning, and for those who will listen, the enunciation of truth. And the truth is, there is something terribly wrong with this country, isn’t there?”

“V For Vendetta“